Дипломная работа: Economic bases of innovative activity in public health services

3. The estimation of efficiency of the innovative project in public health services

3.1 Estimation of efficiency of the innovative project by a standard technique

1) Calculation of factor of the pure resulted cost (NPV) For application of a standard technique of a case of the innovative project considered in the present degree work, all basic numerical data will undertake from point 3.2 of the present work. So the forecast, let us assume, becomes that the investment (IC) will generate within 3 years, revenues at a rate of CF1, CF2, CF.... The general saved up size of the discounted incomes (PV) (Present Value) and the pure resulted cost (NPV) (Net Present Value) Pays off.

Here n - quantity of the periods of time on which the investment is made, r - norm of profitableness (profitableness) from an investment. It is known that if: NPV> 0 the project should be accepted; NPV <0 the project should be rejected; NPV = 0, the project not profitable and not the unprofitable. For our project

Here and more low in work we will believe that 1 c.u. = 1$. We will notice also, what at the moment of 01.04.04 Central Bank rate of the Russian Federation of the American dollar made 28 rbl. 13 copeck Here in the first composed number 14011 of c.u. with a minus corresponds to the full cost price of the project, r=0,166, or, what the same, r=16,6 %? Level of profitability (profitableness) of the project. For our project the settlement size is more than zero, the project profitable means. 2) calculation of an index of profitability of investments (PI) Pays off a profitability index (Profitability Index) (PI) under the formula:

PI = ∑k [Pk / (1 + r)k] / IC,

Let's remind that if: PI> 1 the project should be accepted; PI <1 the project should be rejected; PI = 1, the project neither profitable, nor unprofitable. For our project it is had:

Here 8721 c.u.? Net profit size. In brackets three composed as we investigate the project within three years? 2005, 2006 and 2007 whereas we begin project realisation in 2004. For the considered project this size is more than unit, hence, the project profitable. 3) calculation of internal rate of return or norm of profitability of the investment (IRR) (Internal Rate of Return) (IRR) understand value of factor of discounting As internal rate of return or norm of profitability of the investment r at which NPV the project it is equal to zero: IRR = r, at which NPV = f (r) = 0.

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Where CFj - an entrance monetary stream during j th period, INV - value of the investment. Strictly speaking, this factor dismisses not so much, how many the equation, having solved which, we will find the norm of profitableness INN is minimum necessary for realisation of the project. For our project it is had a following equation:. We will notice that in the left member of equation three composed owing to that consideration is conducted for three years. A trial and error method we find that for performance of following equality it is necessary, that approximate equality was observed. It means that the norm of profitableness of 8,1 % whereas from following point it will be visible that norm of profitableness of our project of 16,6 % is necessary for a project recoupment. It means that it is necessary to recognise the project profitable. We will draw conclusions by results of calculations of the basic factors of model under the decision on acceptance or a project deviation is accepted after consideration of values resulted above factors. As we saw, all these factors have yielded that result that the project profitable and it should be accepted to realisation.

3.2 Estimation of efficiency of the innovative project by an offered technique

Industrial competitive advantages. For device manufacturing? The biotest? Components will be used inexpensive, not scarce, широкодоступные, but at the same time qualitative, basically import manufacture. In this connection the device will have high consumer properties at the low cost price. A market estimation. The market of the medical equipment in Russia is not sated enough by the equipment of the given direction [23] whereas the developed device has no strong contenders both on Russian, and in the foreign market. It promotes fast advancement of the device on the market of Russia and the near abroad. Changes in the given market can occur under the influence of following external factors: - occurring in the currency market - preference of consumers As it is necessary to pay attention of change to the internal factors influencing a condition of the given market: - a competition; - change of internal structure of participants of the market. All it leads to constant changes in the given market that and as consequence constant improvement and expansion of assortment of production, and as to expansion of a variety of the services given together with the offered goods constantly promotes qualitative improvement of structure of participants. Novosibirsk scientists carry out statistical researches, applicable for the marketing analysis of the market of medical services [24]. On the spent statistical researches the schedule of distribution by consumers of given production on categories has been constructed:

15 % - the Doctors who are engaged in individual activity of 30 % - the Medical institutions applying non-standard methods of diagnostics and treatment of 55 % - the Medical institutions rendering additional paid services of a Fig. 3.1.? Distribution of consumers on categories From the resulted data we see, what more than half (55 %) consumers of medical services address in the establishments rendering additional paid services? But these establishments just also are potential buyers of production for which the investment project [61] is developed. That fact is interesting that in the Russian market at present there are all some competitors [25]: * Peterlink Electronics. It is the German company, she offers very high-class devices working only complete with the COMPUTER and the software. Production of this company has no such necessary property as compactness and mobility. The firm offers completely equipped offices intended only for work with this device. Completely equipped office costs approximately $20000. Such expenses are presumed only by the provided medical institution. * Kindling. It too the company from Germany. About it there is an information small amount. Devices of this company are delivered and work both from the COMPUTER and without the COMPUTER but as have no property of compactness and mobility. The complete set of the equipment of the given company costs approximately from $5000 to $6000 depending on a complete set. * Start-1. It is the Russian firm. Makes complexes both from the COMPUTER, and without the COMPUTER. It is known that the complex without the COMPUTER costs approximately $1400. The basic advantage of all three listed companies consists that in their devices there is a quantity of additional functions, but this advantage is not the main thing. Lacks of all three companies consist that: - Devices do not have properties of compactness, mobility, and they are difficult in circulation; - the high prices for complexes. Advantages of our device are its such properties as: mobility, compactness, possibility to work both in stationary, and in field conditions, possibility to work both complete with the COMPUTER, and without the COMPUTER, very low price at quality not conceding to competitors, but in our device are collected only the basic functions which are the most necessary. A lack of the given device is absence in it of additional functions available for competitors. A company lack is its not so wide popularity on the given segment of the market, but this lack constantly decreases. The table in which the advantages set forth above and lacks are shown is more low resulted.

Let's notice that at the moment of April, 1st, 2004 1 American dollar on a Central Bank rate of the Russian Federation made 28 rbl. 15 copeck Of the table it is visible that the considered device has big advantages in comparison with the competitive. The goods of competitors are calculated basically on a narrow circle of the consumers having their possibility to buy, and many have such possibility far not. At the same time the considered device has low enough price at the basic requirements not conceding to competitors, and in some parametres them even surpasses. Demand forecasting. For the forecast we will take advantage of mathematical modelling of demand for the developed device? The biotest?. The essence of an applied mathematical method consists in extrapolation of the statistical data about presence of similar devices in medical institutions of a city and area for 2002-2004 on volume of demand for the considered device in 2005. For extrapolation carrying out it is necessary to calculate a trend line. Calculation of a straight line of demand. The general equation of a straight line [8]

y=a0+a1t,

Where at? The predicted volume of demand, t? Time moment (year, day, month, etc. in which us the demand volume), a0 and a1 interests? Unknown factors of a straight line of demand subject to calculation. Two unknown person of factor of a straight line of demand we will find from two linear equations

na0+a1åt=åy,(3.5)

a0åt+a1åt2=å yt.(3.6)

Here п? Quantity of the considered moments of time (for example, as in our case, three years). At application of the described model of forecasting of demand for a developed product, we will take advantage of results of own researches which consisted in data gathering about presence of the devices realising a method of Follja in medical institutions of Novosibirsk and the Novosibirsk region. The idea of the forecast of demand consisted in that, having the information on presence similar developed in the present work of devices, to assume that on the offered device demand will develop under the same mathematical laws. For drawing up of the equations of the predicting we will take advantage of the following table in which results of telephone surveys of assistants to head physicians on economy of various medical institutions of a city of Novosibirsk and the Novosibirsk region are brought:

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